The October 10 election sees a first for Scarborough Southwest – a visible minority candidate. And why not? About forty percent of the riding is now made up of visible minorities.
Jay Sarkar, a Hindu Canadian businessman of Bengali extraction, is the New Democratic Party candidate. It remains to be seen how pivotal his national origin may be in this contest and if enough new Canadians in the riding will rally to his support.
Toronto Public Health reports that 516,630 immigrants settled in the City of Toronto in the ten years after 1991. Most of them came from China, Sri Lanka, India, the Philippines, Hong Kong, and Pakistan. Many have found homes in Scarborough Southwest.
Chinese, South Asians, Blacks, and Filipinos made up 14% of the population across the province in 2001. But in this riding alone, they made up 36% of residents. In the last six years even more Asian, Caribbean and African immigrants have made this riding their home. More than two in five residents here are now from visible minority groups.
How active are newcomers in the politics of their adopted homeland?
Early studies of immigrant political behaviour conclude these factors often restrict newcomers from voting or running for elected office: lower socio-economic status, fewer social ties, and difficulties with language. Recent studies are more optimistic. It appears that after about ten years in Canada immigrants are as likely as native born Canadians to be involved in political life.
That evolution has already become apparent in a study of the makeup of the Ontario Legislature 1990-2003 : visible minority M.P.P’s: 1990 – 1; 1995 – 2; 1999 – 3; 2003 – 8.
Origins and election outcomes
In the upcoming election six candidates will vie for the Scarborough Southwest seat. Those from the Liberal, P.C., Green, Family Coalition, and Libertarian parties are of European background. Jay Sarkar is not phased by his breakthrough in Scarborough South West. In fact he was unaware of being the first non-Caucasian to run for provincial office in the riding.
What are his prospects? In the 2003 McGuinty sweep the percentages in the riding were: Liberals 47, P.C. 32, N.D.P. 18, Green <2 and Family Coalition <2. Thus, Sarkar has his work cut out for him.
With twelve days to go he’s optimistic. He spoke of his hard work and success in business, and being prepared to make a different sort of contribution in government. He has personally canvassed about one-half of the riding, and reports a highly positive reception from voters.
“I am passionate, committed, and focused,” says Sarkar. He describes his vision as, “bettering the lives of hard-working people in the riding.” He does not expect automatic support from voters of Black or Asian background, but reports that many have been quick to pledge him their votes in face-to-face meetings. And the positive reception, he says, extends to Caucasian families, too.
Polls suggest the Green Party is making inroads on traditional NDP territory. But Sarkar doubts the Greens are having a significant impact in Scarborough South West. So far I’ve seen no signs for Green candidate, Stefan Dixon. Nor have I received any Green Party literature at my door.
When I spoke recently with Sarkar about his prospects, I was my usual pessimistic self. But he was confident: “I fully expect to win the riding for the New Democratic Party! Then I’ll serve the people with true professionalism, conviction, transparency, and honesty”
We’ll see if the election returns on October 10 bear out Sarkar’s optimism. And more to the point, whether the NDP read correctly the the significance of an increasing immigrant population in Scarborough Southwest.
Disclosure : I put up one of the first Sarkar signs on my lawn. I have been a supporter of democratic socialism for the past fifty plus years.
An addendum to my piece on changing demographics in Scarborough SW: a veteran of many campaigns has pointed out that *candidates* can expect to receive a warm welcome at the door, although the voter has no intention of casting a ballot for them. It seems that most of us wish to be courteous and supportive towards individuals who have been nominated and who are taking the trouble to meet us face-to-face on our doorsteps.
To get a more reliable picture of voting intentions one must talk to campaign workers who have met householders while distributing campaign literature. It is far less likely that a voter will declare his or her voting intentions inaccurately to a mere party worker.
Thus, candidates need to discount much of the expression of support that they hear. Often people are simply attempting to be agreeable.